Description: The Joint Risk Management Section is trying to develop better estimates of policyholder behavior in the tail [PBITT]. The mission of the PBITT working group is to examine and ultimately give guidance to actuaries on how to set policyholder assumptions in extreme scenarios. As part of its work, the PBITT working group issued its sixth survey to gather the range of assumptions actuaries use in pricing, reserving, and risk management of minimum guarantees on Variable Annuity products, such as death benefits, income benefits, withdrawal benefits and maturity benefits. This document contains the results of that survey.

Description: This is an Excel workbook that can be used as a tool for health insurance companies to model their potential risk exposure from an influenza pandemic. It is based on a model developed for a Society of Actuaries study examining the potential implications of a pandemic on the U.S. health insurance industry. The spreadsheet is saved with many of the same assumptions used in this research and reproduces the results of the exhibits contained in the June 2010 report, 'Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Health Insurance Industry.'

Description: This article pertains to the optimal asset allocation of surplus from an insurance company model. The insurance company is represented by a compound Poisson risk process which is perturbed by diffusion and has investments. The investments are in both risky and risk-free types of assets similar to stocks/real estate and bonds. The insurance company can borrow at a constant interest rate in the event of a negative surplus. Numerical analysis appears to show that an optimal asset allocation range can be estimated for certain parameters and compared with insurance data. Using a conservative method to minimize the probability of ruin, a reasonable optimal asset allocation range for a typical insurance company is about 4.5 to 8.2 percent invested in risky stock/real estate assets. An inequality and the exact solution are obtained for the pure diffusion equation. In addition, the asymptotic form of the ruin probability is shown to be a power function.

Description: Research report describing the results of an Emerging Risks Survey conducted in 2016. The report, the tenth in a series, includes comparisons to the previous surveys.

Description: In December 1997, the Society of Actuaries held a conference whose focus was actuarial and financial modeling. During the course of that conference, one of the speakers mentioned a number of technologies his firm was using for modeling, which were either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to some of the audience. The purpose of this paper is to define each of the technologies mentioned during that presentation and to briefly describe their distinguishing characteristics. The technologies discussed in this paper are statistical pattern recognition [SPR], neural networks [NNs], genetic algorithms [GAs], simulated annealing, fractal analysis, chaos theory, rule induction, data fusion algorithms [DFAs], data compression, fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning, and expert systems.

Description: Research report describing the results of an Emerging Risks Survey conducted in 2013. The report includes comparisons to the five previous surveys as well as a survey sent to INARM members in April 2008.

Description: This paper considers the distribution of aggregate claims of an insurer. The general form of the distribution is considered initially, and, after a few mild restrictions are imposed, it is characterized as being a compound distribution. Followed by one submitted discussion paper.

Description: This paper outlines a method of parametric modeling that may be used to produce forecasts and forecast intervals that will convey a measure of the reliance that may be placed on the forecasts. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of underwriting cycles on an insurer’s surplus. The model allows the insurer to vary its security loading in response to the cycles, with a strategy parameter that indicates the extent to which the insurer follows the loading which prevails in the market. The insurer’s claim rate is also allowed to vary to reflect exposure changes that result from the insurer’s strategy. The paper analyzes ruin probabilities using both simulation and a Lundberg-type upper bound which is developed in the paper. It finds that the latter is suitable and convenient for comparing ruin probabilities under the different insurer strategies.

Description: This paper describes reverse mortgages, a form of home equity conversion specifically suited to older homeowners who need cash from their homes but who still want to live in them. This paper describes the basic characteristics of a reverse mortgage as well as the types of guarantees generally thought necessary for a tenure reverse mortgage to be marketable. These guarantees create five types of risk susceptible to actuarial evaluation. Each risk is identified, and methods of charging for and minimizing these risks are discussed. Special underwriting hazards and the need for asset reserving are reviewed. Examples of pricing and reserving for a reverse mortgage are provided. Careful supervision of reverse mortgage lending by use of actuarial methods is recommended. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1992, Vol. 44.